The “wisdom of the crowd” is a simple approach that can be surprisingly effective at finding the correct answer to certain problems. For instance, if a large group of people is asked to estimate the number of jelly beans in a jar, the average of all the answers gets closer to the truth than individual responses. The algorithm is applicable to limited types of questions, but there’s evidence of real-world usefulness, like improving medical diagnoses.
This process has some pretty obvious limits, but a team of researchers at MIT and Princeton published a paper in Nature this week suggesting a way to make it more reliable: look for an answer that comes up more often than people think it will, and it’s likely to be correct.
As part of their paper, Dražen Prelec and his colleagues used a survey on capital cities in the US. Each question was a simple True/False statement with the format “Philadelphia is the capital of Pennsylvania.” The city listed was always the most populous city in the state, but that’s not necessarily the capital. In the case of Pennsylvania, the capital is actually Harrisburg, but plenty of people don’t know that.